Heating Oil Hit a Record $6.19 a Gallon. Kerosene Comes From the Same Cut of the Barrel

The first heating-oil price survey of the season usually confirms what Northeast households already suspect. This year it did more than that. In the week of 5 October, EIA’s weekly survey put the U.S. residential average at $6.050 a gallon. Two weeks later it was $6.190. A year ago, in the same week of October, it was $3.526.

This article does not forecast fuel prices and takes no view on the policy debates around them. It explains the chemistry and the refinery arithmetic behind the number: why heating oil, diesel, jet fuel and kerosene are priced off one another, how small kerosene’s share of the barrel really is, what separates the 1-K kerosene sold for indoor heaters from the oil in a basement tank, and what EIA’s own outlook says about the months ahead. Every price below is EIA data; every percentage change is our arithmetic on it.

How high are heating oil prices this October?

Higher than at any point in EIA’s weekly series, which runs back to 1990. The $6.190 reading for 19 October is the highest weekly figure on record in nominal dollars; the previous October high was $5.836, in 2022. The whole distillate family moved with it. The table compares the latest weekly figures with the same week a year earlier. Retail heating oil and on-highway diesel both rose by roughly three quarters. The wholesale price of kerosene-type jet fuel on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the closest published benchmark for the kerosene range of the barrel, more than doubled.

Three things stand out. The retail increases for heating oil and diesel are almost identical in dollars, about $2.66 a gallon each, which is what you would expect from two products drawn from the same tank farm. The wholesale kerosene-range price rose by slightly less in dollars but much more in percentage terms, because it started from a lower base without delivery and retail margins on top. And the stocks line explains the rest: the country is holding about a tenth less distillate than it was a year ago, going into the season when the Northeast burns most of it.

Why do heating oil, diesel and kerosene move together?

Because they are the same family of molecules, separated by boiling range. EIA puts it in one line: “Heating oil and diesel fuel are closely related petroleum products called distillates”. When a refinery heats crude oil in a distillation column, the lightest material leaves at the top as gas and naphtha, and the heaviest stays at the bottom as residue. In between, drawn off the side of the column, is the middle-distillate cut: the fraction that boils after naphtha and before the heavy gas oils.

Kerosene is the lighter end of that cut. Heating oil and diesel take in more of the heavier end. EIA’s glossary gives the boundaries in the language of the ASTM specifications each product is sold under:

Two practical consequences follow. First, a refinery has some freedom to move molecules between these products. Material at the light end of the cut can go to jet fuel, kerosene or the diesel and heating-oil pool, depending on which pays best. Prices across the family stay linked because refiners keep arbitraging them. Second, the physical difference between heating oil and diesel is small enough that the main thing separating them in the United States is tax. As EIA notes, “Heating oil is dyed red.” The dye marks fuel that is exempt from highway taxes.

How much kerosene does a barrel of crude make?

Almost none, as a product in its own right. EIA’s table of U.S. refinery output per barrel, built from 2023 data, shows how the middle-distillate cut is divided once it leaves the column. Out of about 44.65 gallons of finished products made from each 42-gallon barrel of crude (the volume grows in processing), the split looks like this:

Kerosene for heaters and lamps comes from the same boiling range as jet fuel, and on our arithmetic U.S. refiners make about 110 times more jet fuel than kerosene from it. That is why the jet fuel benchmark is the right one to watch. When the kerosene range of the barrel tightens, as it has this year, kerosene is priced against what that same material would fetch as jet fuel or blended into diesel. A product that makes up less than a tenth of one percent of refinery output cannot set its own price. It follows the family.

The same arithmetic explains why kerosene does not disappear from the market when distillate gets tight. The volumes involved for heaters and lamps are tiny next to the jet and diesel pools, and they are drawn from material refiners already make in bulk. What changes is the price at which that material is released.

What does EIA expect this winter?

Prices staying high, and East Coast stocks staying low. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 6 October 2026, says: “We forecast retail distillate prices will remain above $6/gal in October”, with a gradual decline after that as crude oil prices ease and inventories recover slightly. It expects distillate to stay expensive relative to history well beyond this winter.

The inventory picture matters most for the Northeast, where the heating-oil customers are. EIA’s figures put about 4.79 million U.S. households on heating oil as their primary heating fuel in the winter of 2023–2024, “and about 82% of those households were in the U.S. Northeast Census Region.” On the East Coast, the October outlook reports:

• “Distillate inventories on the U.S. East Coast (PADD 1) were 32% below their five-year (2021–2025) seasonal average in September”.
• “We forecast East Coast distillate inventories to remain between 20% and 30% below the five-year average through the upcoming winter.”
• “Imports mostly come from Canada to the Northeast and typically peak between December and February.”

The outlook adds that the region cannot simply import its way out of the gap this year: “With low global distillate fuel inventories, we expect East Coast importers will face difficulty boosting imports enough to bring inventory levels closer to normal during the winter heating season.” Low stocks do not mean empty tanks. They mean less cushion, so a cold snap or a refinery outage shows up in price faster than it would in a normal year.

Can you burn heating oil or diesel in a kerosene heater?

No. The specification table above is the reason. Heating oil and diesel are allowed to boil up to 640°F at the 90% point. Kerosene sold under ASTM D3699 must be fully boiled off by 572°F. Unvented kerosene heaters and wick lamps are built around a light fuel that climbs a wick and vaporises at the burner; a heavier fuel is outside the specification the appliance was designed for.

The specification goes further than boiling range for indoor appliances. ASTM D3699 defines two grades and describes No. 1-K as “A special low-sulfur grade kerosine suitable for use in nonflue-connected kerosine burner appliances and for use in wick-fed illuminating lamps.” Nonflue-connected means the heater has no chimney: whatever it burns ends up in the room. No. 2-K, the regular grade, is for flue-connected appliances. That is the grade written for unvented heaters, and the heater’s own manual is the document to follow on fuel, ventilation and a working carbon monoxide alarm.

The reverse substitution is also worth a sentence, because it comes up whenever heating oil is expensive. Kerosene is lighter than No. 2 fuel oil, and the EIA glossary groups range or stove oil with kerosene, as having properties similar to No. 1 fuel oil. Whether any particular furnace or boiler can burn kerosene, or a blend, is a question for its manufacturer and the service technician, not for a general article. Nothing here is advice to change the fuel in a heating system.

What this means on a specification

A buyer of kerosene for heaters, lamps or shop use is specifying a grade, a container and a set of documents. The table pairs each with what to ask for and where the published basis comes from.

On the price row: packaged kerosene is priced on more than the molecules. A gallon in a can also carries the container, filling, freight and hazardous-materials handling, so its price does not track a bulk spot price week by week. The EIA series are the right way to see where the underlying material is heading, not a quote for a container.

About supply. This article reports EIA price, inventory and refinery data and explains general fuel chemistry. It makes no claim about ours: it does not say where the kerosene we list is refined or how its price will move, and it offers no view on fuel policy. Prices and pack sizes are on the product pages.

Common questions

Why is heating oil so expensive in October 2026?

Distillate fuel is tight. EIA’s weekly survey put U.S. residential heating oil at $6.190 a gallon in the week of 19 October 2026, the highest weekly figure since the series began in 1990, against $3.526 a year earlier. U.S. distillate stocks were about a tenth lower than a year before, and EIA reported East Coast distillate inventories 32% below their five-year average in September.

Is kerosene the same as heating oil?

They are related but not the same. Both are middle distillates from crude oil. Kerosene is the lighter end of the cut, with a final boiling point of 572°F under ASTM D3699. No. 2 heating oil is heavier and can boil up to 640°F at its 90% point under ASTM D396.

Can you put heating oil or diesel in a kerosene heater?

No. Heating oil and diesel are heavier than kerosene: they may boil up to 640°F at the 90% point, where kerosene must be fully boiled off by 572°F. Unvented kerosene heaters are designed for No. 1-K kerosene, the low-sulfur grade ASTM D3699 describes for nonflue-connected appliances. Follow the heater manual on fuel and ventilation.

What is 1-K kerosene?

No. 1-K is the low-sulfur grade of kerosene defined in ASTM D3699, intended for heaters without a flue and for wick-fed lamps. No. 2-K is the regular grade, for appliances connected to a flue. Both must meet the same boiling and flash point limits.

How much kerosene comes from a barrel of crude oil?

About 0.04 gallons, according to EIA’s 2023 figures for U.S. refineries. The same boiling range yields about 4.41 gallons of kerosene-type jet fuel, and the wider distillate cut yields about 12.47 gallons of diesel and heating oil per 42-gallon barrel.

What does EIA expect for heating oil prices this winter?

In its 6 October 2026 outlook, EIA forecast retail distillate prices above $6 a gallon in October, easing gradually after that, and East Coast distillate inventories staying 20% to 30% below the five-year average through the winter.

What we stock

Kerosene - K1 Clean Burning Fuel

No. 1-K grade for unvented heaters and wick lamps.

Mineral Spirits - Odorless Solvent & Thinner

A petroleum solvent for thinning and shop cleaning, not a fuel.

VM&P Naphtha Technical Grade

A faster-drying petroleum solvent for coatings work.

Key numbers and sources